I have to be honest with you folks. Actually, I don’t have to be honest, I guess.
I could just lie about how easy it should be to find outliers in DraftKings tournaments for the upcoming Wild-Card Weekend. You folks are smarter than that though and surely realize that with just four games on tap you have to dig deeper to find players that have a shot at racking up unforeseen fantasy points.
With 15 or 16 games available on a normal regular season week, there’s a lot to choose from when it comes to third option wideouts or backup running backs. There’re even a couple defenses that only a three percent of DK users will risk drafting.
With four games everyone is going to be on the same guys so it may be just one position that sets you apart at the top of the winner’s dog pile.
Let’s take a look at how to find the hidden gems when all your competition will be looking at the same eight teams under a DFS microscope.
Remember, you have to be extreme to beat over 100,000 other fantasy degenerates like yourself.
- – Choosing a backup quarterback instead of the starter is so risky you could call me insane. I will take the compliment. All I know is I saw a guy win thousands in a tournament on DraftKings back when Ben Roethlisberger was injured and listed as the backup only to enter the game and rack up huge points when his backup got hurt.
So which of the eight QBs is most likely to get knocked out the game? I don’t wish injury on anyone obviously. That said, Brian Hoyer has been concussed twice this year. His backup is Brandon Weeden at just $5000 and despite being clowned for his starts while a Cowboy, he racked up 22 DK points in week 16. He was facing the Titans, not exactly the defensive rock that he would see versus the Chiefs in this playoff game.
That game will be played in Houston despite KC having the better record and don’t forget that DeAndre Hopkins can make any QB look good.
We know Ben Roethlisberger has missed games this year, but he always seems to come back early from injury. It would take a serious injury to knock him out of this playoff contest and stadium security to keep him from sneaking back into the game.
We still can’t trust the Bengals on who they will start at quarterback on Saturday night versus the Steelers. We do know that Andy Dalton’s thumb fell off once already. McCarron is the safe choice but not until nearly game time when we have fresh news on Dalton. Even if McCarron does start, Dalton is a good tournament play since he could come off the bench quickly if the Steelers get off to a hot start.
- – Be bold but not stupid. That was my strategy last week in big money tournaments. I chose the cheapest defense I could find, but one I felt had a real chance to at least not get shut out. At tight end, I took a no name since TEs can’t be trusted anyway. Why spend lots of your salary cap on such a volatile position?
After saving money on those two spots, I took mid range running backs then spent like a drunken sailor on prime time receivers. I had Julio Jones, Odell Beckham, and Antonio Brown. These guys were crazy expensive, but it worked out, sorta. Beckham was a letdown, but I still managed to win a little money to live to fight another week.
So in the Wild-Card games why not take the best four wide outs you can fit in under the cap. WRs have the biggest upside of any position generally, so that’s what we want in tourneys.
The highest cost wideouts this Wild-Card Weekend are Antonio Brown ($9600), DeAndre Hopkins ($8400), AJ Green ($7500) and Doug Baldwin ($6700). Rostering all four will leave you with an impossible $3560 per position afterward.
In case you are deeply in credit card debt and unable to do a proper budget….that does not work. So you will have to substitute a receiver with a lower price tag.
Since Brown is the most expensive he is the obvious choice to swap even though he’s the best receiver in the playoffs. Jordan Reed has been hitting around 30 DK points the last three games that mattered for his Redskins. At $6300 he’s $3300 cheaper that Brown. Reed fits nicely in the Flex Slot.
If you can’t stand the thought of dropping Antonio Brown in a game that Vegas has listed as the highest scoring of the weekend, then just drop Hopkins for Reed. That will still save you $2100.
You’ll have to tinker with the running backs and QB position to keep under the cap, but I can’t do it all for you, and I will be of no help with your credit card debt either.
- – Watch the weather.
The only game that looks to be perfect is in Houston where they can close the roof if need be. The best chance of rain is in Cincinnati so choosing one of these defenses in wet weather could result in some turnovers and even defensive touchdowns. The Steelers and Bengals may rack up huge points on offense, but the rain could make you look like a genius by choosing a defense that most users won’t touch.
The Wind is an even bigger factor than rain when it comes to QB play. So the 13 mph winds expected in Washington could hurt a red hot Kirk Cousins just enough to lead to Green Bay’s defense getting a pick six. Aaron Rodgers isn’t immune to the wind either and has not looked like an elite passer of late with his receivers being less than stellar.
Feel free to chip me off a little bit of any winnings you get on DraftKings as a result of my outlier options for Wild-Card Weekend.
If I happen to hit big myself, you’ll be the first to know.