#2. Zack Greinke, Arizona Diamondbacks
2015 WAR: 9.3
2014 WAR: 4.3
WAR Improvement: 5.0
It’s important to note that claiming Zack Greinke can’t sustain this astronomical improvement isn’t the equivalent of saying he’ll be a bad pitcher in 2016. Now throwing heat for the Arizona Diamondbacks, he should still establish himself as one of the best in the business, drawing strong Cy Young consideration even after enduring some regression.
Ben Bruno of NumberFire concurs.
“It’s all but a given that Greinke will not replicate his 1.66 ERA with the Diamondbacks, so while he’s due for a regression, his stats don’t suggest that a major one is coming,” he writes after crunching all the metrics. “That, paired with playing for an improved defense behind him, make me believe that another Cy Young caliber season is in store for the 32-year-old.”
Greinke probably won’t strand 86.5 percent of his runners, even if he’s leaving the Los Angeles Dodgers for a team that allowed the same percentage of inherited runners to score in 2015. It’s also highly unlikely that he posts another .229 BABIP, despite the improvements he’s made inducing weak contact and fly balls.
His ERA was sensational, but the National League’s Cy Young runner-up posted a 2.76 FIP and 3.22 xFIP last year.
He’s nearly a lock to allow more runs in 2016, but that doesn’t mean he’ll be anything other than one of the best pitchers in baseball for the Diamondbacks.