Andy Murray’s betting odds to win the 2015 French Open, following a comprehensive victory over Rafael Nadal on Sunday, are shortening drastically. The Scot, who won ATP Munich on clay last week, won the second clay court tournament of his career in Madrid, defeating Nadal 6-3, 6-2 in that Master Series event’s championship match.
A short time ago Murray, who had never won a clay court event prior to this season, was priced at about 25 to 1 in the outright winner’s market for Roland Garros. For example Stan James had the Scot at those odds during much of April. But the unfolding of events over the last couple of days, which also saw Murray defeat former third favorite Kei Nishikori, have lead to odds of about 8 to 1 for most sportsbooks regarding the Scot’s chances in Paris (ie. Bwin).
Murray has never made the final of the French Open in his career to date. He has made a run deep in a couple of the draws at Roland Garros, making the semifinals in both 2014 and 2012. However Murray is definitely a player capable of winning Slams, having won both the US Open and Wimbledon in his career already.
Nadal, who is a nine-time champion in Paris, remains the second favorite to win the French Open behind Novak Djokovic (ie. bet365). Currently the Spaniard is in the area of 9 to 4 but you have to wonder if those odds will continue to drift. Besides the loss to Murray, Nadal has suffered setbacks to much less proven players, including Fabio Fognini twice on clay already this year.
The favorite to win the 2015 French Open remains Djokovic, a player who was idle this past week. The Serb will play in the quickly approaching Rome Masters, the final Masters event ahead of the clay court Grand Slam. Djokovic appears poised to win in Rome, especially since he enters the field following a week’s rest. Most of the other favorites, including Nadal, Murray, and Nishikori, have to be at least a little fatigued following their efforts in Madrid. Djokovic, conversely, has to be fresh.
An interesting thing with both Djokovic and Murray is that they have both been denied clay court success in Paris thanks to Nadal’s reign as the King of Clay. Djokovic, having won every other major, needs only to win the French Open to claim a career-slam. Murray, should he win the 2015 French Open, would still need to win the Aussie to claim that feat.
However the door, more than ever, appears to be open for one of them in Paris this season. In fact, you have to wonder if Nadal should be considered fourth favorite to win the French Open now – behind not just Djokovic and Murray, but Nishikori as well.
Rome won’t prove much this season as Djokvoic enters the tournament with an edge in terms of relative fatigue. There’s a couple 250-events to follow next week but they won’t showcase all of the favorites. Nonetheless, at about this time next month the French Open will be decided. At this point a likely final appears to be Djokovic vs. either Murray or Nishikori.